Este mes, analizaremos a detalle las tasas de interés y los cambios en la anatomía de los rendimientos de los bonos.

Official data suggest slowing momentum in the labor market, with the unemployment rate rising to a 30-month high and a key job-creation measure at a three-year low. A slowdown would be expected given the high interest rates that the Federal Reserve has deployed to fight inflation. However, the recent data come with caveats, and still-strong wage growth underscores our belief that Fed rate cuts aren’t imminent.

The Fed likely won’t cut rates until core inflation hits 2.5%, which we don’t anticipate happening until 2025.

Daniel Shaykevich is a portfolio manager and co-head of the Emerging Markets and Sovereign Debt team in the Vanguard Fixed Income Group (FIG). In this conversation, he talks about opportunities for alpha, the impact of monetary policy on the asset class, and how an expanding number of EM issuers affects risk. Shaykevich and his team manage exposure across 19 Vanguard emerging markets portfolios with approximately $8.6 billion in assets.*